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~ Alternative Development Scenarios ~


Appendix A

pg-A-1

Before briefly describing the Alternative Development Scenarios, a word of explanation about domestic water consumption at Brooktrails is necessary. The term "units" refers to "equivalent single family residential units" (SFR), for water consumption planning purposes. Based on the historic record of water consumption at Brooktrails, one "unit" equals one single family residential unit in terms of actual water consumption (220 gallons per day per SFR). As of May, 1993, the District served 1,350 equivalent SFRs. Under the existing water supply, the State of California Department of Health Services, Office of Drinking Water, has determined that the District has sufficient raw water capacity to serve up to 2,000 equivalent single family residential units. Statistical data summarized below for each of the Alternative Development Scenarios reflected the number of improved and unimproved lots within Brooktrails at the time of developing the Scenarios in early 1995.


FIXED GROWTH SCENARIO #1: 2,000 UNITS

Scenario #1, a "fixed growth" scenario, assumed no more water connections than currently authorized by the California Department of Health Services. This scenario was analogous to the No Project Alternative which is required for discussion under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) in the Specific Plan Environmental Impact Report. In addition, given the level of discussion of this alternative at the Community Congress in October, 1994, it seemed appropriate to evaluate this alternative in concert with the other alternatives described below for economic comparative reasons. This alternative was recommended for implementation by the Community Vision Focus Group in its report prepared for the Brooktrails Township Board of Directors, June, 1994.

With an existing 2,000-SFR limit in Brooktrails, and allowing 185 SFRs for existing public facilities and the Spring Creek subdivision, 1,815 SFRs remain for total hook-ups. Allowing 93% of the available hook-ups for single-family residences, 6% for duplexes and 1% for four family units, the total lot count would amount to 1,748 accommodating 1,815 dwelling units. At 2.6 persons per unit, the resident population would amount to 4,719 individuals.

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Table A-1 provides a statistical breakdown of each growth scenario.

Future development under the Fixed Growth Scenario would be expected to occur as infill development within the existing lot pattern at Brooktrails.

LOW GROWTH SCENARIO #2: 2,500 UNITS
Scenario #2, a low growth scenario, assumed no new dam construction at Brooktrails for additional domestic water supply, but did assume that some additional water would be available above the existing 2,000-connection cap. Recognizing that hydraulic characteristics vary throughout the township, this additional water would be supplied through wells, additional water tanks, added conservation efforts or some combination of all three.

Under the Low Growth Scenario, future development would generally be expected to occur in areas outside the high-constraint areas. This already seems to be occurring for example, because there are very few residences on slopes exceeding 40%. Realistically, the Low Growth Scenario would be based on a rather random pattern of individual lot selection as now occurs. Any tendency toward emphasizing (clustering) future development in areas already developed with adequate infrastructure, with the benefit of preserving other areas for open space or resource value, should be promoted to the extent practicable.

According to the available information, the sewer trunk main that connects Brooktrails to the City of Willits Wastewater Treatment Plant will reach capacity when approximately 1,900 SFRs have been constructed in the District, triggering the need for replacement. This would be expected to occur under Scenario #2 or either of the other higher development scenarios. Current infrastructure (roads, utilities), restrictions with respect to outlying areas within the Township would need to be assessed in the effort to promote development in areas more readily serviced by existing infrastructure. In addition, pending verification of flow records, this alternative may also trigger the need for expansion of the Willits Wastewater Treatment Plant which treats sewage originating at Brooktrails.

Scenario #2 was based on up to 2,500 SFRs. Allowing 93% of the available hook-ups for single- family residences, 6% for duplexes and 1% for four-family units, the total lot count would amount to 2,229 accommodating 2,315 dwelling units. At 2.6 persons per unit, the resident population would amount to 6,019 individuals.


MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO #3: 3,500 TO 4,000 UNITS

Scenario #3 was considered to be a medium growth scenario. This Alternative Development Scenario would be split into two phases as follows:

3A:The first phase would provide an adequate water supply for up to 3,500 units by adding capacity to existing reservoirs, adding water wells, and encouraging conservation. This would be expected to provide water for at least five to ten years beyond existing capacity.

pg-A-3 TABLE A-1

3B:The second phase would involve construction of a minimum-size reservoir that, together with existing water supplies, could support up to 4,000 units and provide water for fish flows. This phase would trigger a major threshold decision since it would involve construction of a new reservoir. This phase would provide water for an additional five to ten years beyond phase 3A.
As with Low Growth Scenario #2, Medium Growth Scenario #3 future development would be expected to occur in areas outside the high-constraint areas. The Medium Growth Scenario would be based on a rather random pattern of individual lot selection as now occurs. Any tendency toward emphasizing (clustering) future development in areas already developed with adequate infrastructure, with the benefit of preserving other areas for open space or resource value, would need to be promoted to the extent practicable. A new sewer main to Willits would be required under Medium Growth Scenario #3A or #3B, and possibly an expansion of the Willits Wastewater Treatment Plant.

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Scenario #3A was based on up to 3,500 SFRs. Allowing 93% of the available hook-ups for single-family residences, six% for duplexes and 1% for four-family units, the total lot count would amount to 3,191 accommodating 3,315 dwelling units. At 2.6 persons per unit, the resident population would amount to 8,619 individuals.

Scenario #3B was based on up to 4,000 SFRs. Allowing 93% of the available hook-ups for single-family residences, 6% for duplexes and 1% for four-family units, the total lot count would amount to 3,673 accommodating 3,815 dwelling units. At 2.6 persons per unit, the resident population would amount to 9,919 individuals.


MEDIUM-HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO #4: 5,000 UNITS

Scenario #4 was a medium-high growth scenario. The number of residential units under Scenario #4, as was generally the case with Scenarios #1, #2 and #3, was based on historical trends in voluntary multiple-lot acquisition in Brooktrails, in addition to existing environmental constraints and maintaining the quality of life many residents have referred to in the past, including at the Community Congress held in October, 1994, and as explained in the Community Vision Focus Group Report, June, 1994. This Scenario would require the construction of a new dam for additional domestic water use and water for required fish flows.

With a new dam, the existing dam failure inundation zone would increase. Thus the high- constraint area would increase roughly in proportion to the additional water storage capacity. This condition in turn would create additional area to be considered for multiple lot ownership and/or lot reassembly and combining. The 5,000 SFR/unit count would then decrease in proportion to the size of the new impoundment and inundation zone, and any multiple lot ownership and/or lot reassembly and combining in the inundation zone. Scenario #4 would trigger the requirement for a third access road to Brooktrails because Sherwood Road and the southern access route would operate over capacity.

Scenario #4 was based on up to 5,000 SFRs. Allowing 93% of the available hook-ups for single-family residences, 6% for duplexes and 1% for four-family units, the total developed lot count would amount to 4,635 accommodating 4,815 dwelling units. At 2.6 persons per unit, the resident population would amount to 12,519 individuals.

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HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO #5: 6,000 UNITS

Scenario #5 was a high growth scenario. Scenario #5 assumed that not all of the remaining (currently 828) unimproved lots in the high-constraint areas would be available for reassembly and combining. Scenario #5 assumed that a new dam would be constructed on Willits Creek to provide a new source of municipal water supply to enable development. This scenario also assumed that the voluntary multiple lot ownership process continues at the past rate of about 11%.

A previously proposed 2,400 acre-foot reservoir on Willits Creek would create a new impoundment area. This impoundment area would be about 52 acres in size, but would not cover any residential lots. For the High Growth Scenario, a new dam would increase the high constraint area because of the increased inundation zone. The inundation zone would encompass a total of 289 residential lots and four commercially zoned C-1 lots. There would be 228 unimproved and 61 improved residential lots within the inundation zone.

Under the High Growth Scenario, the existing 2,500 acres set aside for conservation use would remain essentially unchanged, with the exception of the new reservoir and use of material to construct the earth dam from borrow areas. With the other alternative development scenarios, less than buildout as originally planned would occur, and any lots in high constraint areas or other locations not improved would be available for reassembly and combining to augment the conservation area if planned for such use. The conservation area under the High Growth Scenario would require more protective mechanisms to ensure its preservation than would otherwise be the case, given the increased use associated with the higher number of residents.

The High Growth Scenario would not result in significant changes to the layout of the road network because of the established lotting pattern and infill development that would occur under this alternative growth scenario. The same would essentially be true for alternatives of reduced population and density. The existing unimproved roads in the Township would need to be paved.

Scenario #5 was based on up to 6,000 SFRs. Allowing 93% of the available hook-ups for single-family residences, 6% for duplexes and 1% for four-family units, the total developed lot count would amount to 5,598 accommodating 5,815 dwelling units. At 2.6 persons per unit, the resident population would amount to 15,119 individuals.


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